EUR/USD: euro remains under pressure
EUR/USD: euro remains under pressure
22 January 2019, 09:51
| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Intraday |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.1380 |
| Take Profit | 1.1421, 1.1442 |
| Stop Loss | 1.1351 |
| Key Levels | 1.1268, 1.1300, 1.1333, 1.1351, 1.1376, 1.1400, 1.1421, 1.1442 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.1345 |
| Take Profit | 1.1300 |
| Stop Loss | 1.1376, 1.1380 |
| Key Levels | 1.1268, 1.1300, 1.1333, 1.1351, 1.1376, 1.1400, 1.1421, 1.1442 |
Current trend
Yesterday, EUR rose uncertainly against USD within the correction after last week’s fall. However, the pair failed to consolidate in the new positions and by the end of the session, lost its advantage.
EUR growth is constrained by negative PRC data. Chinese Q4 2018 GDP declined. The indicator fell from 1.6% QoQ to 1.5% QoQ and from 6.5% YoY to 6.4% YoY (the worst figure since 1990). Also, European investors are monitoring the situation around Brexit. Yesterday, Prime Minister Theresa May announced a backup plan for an agreement with the EU.
Today, January German and EU data on the index of business sentiment from ZEW will be published. According to the forecast, the number of pessimists in German business circles will increase: the figure will grow from –17.5 to –18.4. EU figure will decrease from –21.0 to –20.1 but pessimism will continue to prevail in European business circles, which may adversely affect EUR.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands move flat. The price range is virtually unchanged but remains wide enough for the current activity level. MACD falls, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reached its lows, reversed horizontally, indicating the growing risks of an upward correction in the super short term.
It is better to wait until the situation is clear.
Resistance levels: 1.1376, 1.1400, 1.1421, 1.1442.
Support Levels: 1.1351, 1.1333, 1.1300, 1.1268.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after a rebound from 1.1351 and a breakout of 1.1376 with the targets at 1.1421–1.1442. Stop loss is 1.1351. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 1.1351 with the target at 1.1300. Stop loss is 1.1376–1.1380. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Yesterday, EUR rose uncertainly against USD within the correction after last week’s fall. However, the pair failed to consolidate in the new positions and by the end of the session, lost its advantage.
EUR growth is constrained by negative PRC data. Chinese Q4 2018 GDP declined. The indicator fell from 1.6% QoQ to 1.5% QoQ and from 6.5% YoY to 6.4% YoY (the worst figure since 1990). Also, European investors are monitoring the situation around Brexit. Yesterday, Prime Minister Theresa May announced a backup plan for an agreement with the EU.
Today, January German and EU data on the index of business sentiment from ZEW will be published. According to the forecast, the number of pessimists in German business circles will increase: the figure will grow from –17.5 to –18.4. EU figure will decrease from –21.0 to –20.1 but pessimism will continue to prevail in European business circles, which may adversely affect EUR.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands move flat. The price range is virtually unchanged but remains wide enough for the current activity level. MACD falls, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reached its lows, reversed horizontally, indicating the growing risks of an upward correction in the super short term.
It is better to wait until the situation is clear.
Resistance levels: 1.1376, 1.1400, 1.1421, 1.1442.
Support Levels: 1.1351, 1.1333, 1.1300, 1.1268.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after a rebound from 1.1351 and a breakout of 1.1376 with the targets at 1.1421–1.1442. Stop loss is 1.1351. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 1.1351 with the target at 1.1300. Stop loss is 1.1376–1.1380. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
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